2008 is becoming more and more interesting...

I've reported on the Democratic boycott of Florida and I've gotten some feedback from people (both from FL and not from FL) saying that I've been too harsh on the democratic presidential candidates and whatever else.

Well...

The Miami Herald has a story on the latest Mason Dixon Florida poll. The poll contains a lot of information but in general election match-ups...

Rudy Giuliani beats Hillary by 7 points.
Fred Thompson beats Hillary by 4 points.
Mitt Romney beats Hillary by 1 point.

Most interesting, though, is that more independents (54%, 47% and 45% respectively) selected the Republican candidate over Hillary.

Why? The Democratic boycott of Florida.

26% of independents said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who "refuses to campaign in Florida in advance of the primary in order to placate voters in Iowa and New Hampshire."

According to the Sunshine Independents Blog, more than 2 million Floridians (19% of Florida voters ) are registered as independents. So, if 2 million independents vote, then roughly 520,000 of them would vote for the Republican candidate only because of the boycott. That's a lot more than the 527 votes that won Florida, and ultimately the presidency, for George W. Bush in 2000.

In 2004 John Kerry received 54% of independent votes to Bush's 41%. In 2000, 47% of independent voters marked their ballots for Al Gore while 46% voted for Bush. As stated earlier in this post, the independents are already leaning more toward Giuliani, Romney and Thompson than Hillary although the Democrat has won the majority of independent votes in Florida in the past 2 presidential elections.

Looks like Florida will play a key role in the presidential election once again.

Oh yeah, the relatively newly elected democratic Congress is setting new records. According to Gallup: "By historical standards, the current [congressional] 20% approval rating is among the lowest Gallup has ever recorded. In fact, in the 173 times since 1974 that Gallup has asked Americans to rate the job Congress is doing, Congress' approval rating has been at or below 20% only four times."

Again, the independents play a role here as only 14% of them approve of the current Congress. That's lower than th 20% of republicans that approve.

President Bush's approval rating is at 32% with 27% of independents approving of his job performance.